A few clouds mixed in with plenty of sunshine made for a gorgeous day today for our first day of winter which arrived at 11:28 AM EST. An approaching warm front allowed our temperatures to respond nicely. We saw a morning low of 28 and topped out at 50 in the afternoon. Another 50 degree day will happen tomorrow but may come up just a tad shy of setting a new record high. The current record is 61 set back in 1949.
Our month to date total precipitation for Dec 1-21 is a whopping 0.24" which is nearly 2" below normal and makes for the 2nd driest start to a December since 1988. We'll get a chance to finally receive some rain but it will be fairly scattered across the Indy metro area with modeled data only suggesting about a tenth of an inch through Saturday morning. Simulated Radar at 11am Fri below from our hi res model run this evening.
The cold front will sweep the state and the temperatures will fall back from around 40 degrees during the midnight hours Friday night to 30s for most of the day Saturday. Any moisture available in the atmosphere will allow rain to transition to light snow showers or flurries but no accumulation is expected.
As the colder air settles back in, the snow chances will return and what better time for us to receive it than the Christmas holiday. All Indiana meteorologists have been tracking this potential of a "White Xmas" for the past several weeks now. As it finally comes to fruition, many will be happy when they wake up Monday morning, particularly the kiddos. For those who have to venture out, the snow may cause some slick spots on the roads leading to some travel delays. Still trying to work out the exact timing but the snow may begin midday on Xmas Eve and end late that night possibly tapering off to some flurries for Monday morning. This isn't a significant weather system so if there are any accumulations it will likely be less than 1". Most accumulation will be on rooftops, metal surfaces and grassy areas.
After what may be our most snowiest Christmas since 2010 (0.4") and coldest since 2004 (High 20) we are looking at drier conditions for Tuesday and Wednesday with some sunshine possible as high pressure slides across the state.
Snow prospects are shaping up nicely in the long range weather forecast. ECMWF EPS Control has been locked in on not only the cold but the snow starting around the holidays extending into the New Year. I'm pretty interested with what I see for Dec 28th-30th time frame and all long range models are now locked in on this snowstorm. Some preliminary model runs are spawning up a half a foot of snow. THIS IS NOT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THAT TIME. More details and a better, more accurate forecast will be presented in the upcoming days as it emerges.
WEATHER FACT: In 1983, the high was -4 after a low of -14. This is the coldest Christmas Day on record in Indianapolis.
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