End of February Outlook

Good Morning Folks! Its Friday and I'm here to give you an idea of what attire to wear as you walk out of the door this weekend. Also we are approaching our final week of this month. As I do every month I'll break down where we stand not only for the month but for 2012 and the season. Sorry, lots of details so pretty lenghthy blog here. So grab the donuts and coffee if you like...haha.

February 1-23 Recap
On the first day of the month we recorded a high temp of 60°, the first of 3 this season. Then mid 50s for the 2nd & 3rd. This makes this the warmest open for the month of February on record, flirting with Record Setting Highs. Luckily, this occured during the time Indy was able to host the Super Bowl where the avg temp was nearly 55° (avg should be 37°)

It got cool again, and we faced a real winter reality check. On the 11th, 12th, & 13th we woke up with morning lows back in the teens then next day we picked up nearly 2" of Snow on Valentines Day, this being the 2nd biggest snow day of the season. Then the temps begin to fluctuate between 30s & 50s. On Feb 22nd, we almost topped our 2nd 60° day of the month, more typically for April 5th.

So far for the month we have picked up nearly an 1" of rain (&,frozen precip). Thats still 1.5" below normal normal.

So far for the month we have picked up 2.2" of snow. Thats 4.3" below average for the month.

The avg high temp for this month right now is 44°. Thats up 5° from our normal avg high of 39°.

The avg low temp for this month right now is 28°. Thats also up 5° from our normal avg low of 23°.



Seasons Data

About 67%, which is 57 days out of 85 days this winter, have been above normal.

We've recorded atleast 1 60° day for each of our 3 winter months this season. December 15th (62°), January 31st (61°), and February 1st (60°).
We have picked up 4.39" of rain & frozen precip since Jan 1st. And 9.49" since Dec 1st

We have picked up 6.6" of snow since Jan 1st. And 9.1" since Nov 1st.

Our snowfall for December was picked up all in one day, Dec. 27th of 2.3"



Todays Forecast

Enough statistic talk, lets get current here. Today, we have snow falling in the Midwest but once again Indianapolis pulled the short straw and looks like we may be missing out on any good accumulating snow. We could use any thing we can get to beef our season totals up but unlikely from this system. The Surface Temps is too warm, thus melting any snow upon contact. We will see flurries & snow flyin though. Thats the best we'll get for all the snow lovers. Still more than 12" below normal in snowfall so far. Only picked up 9.1", should be at more than 21" right now. This is good for the 9th least snowiest winter.




Temps are expected to fall today. Our best chance for snow is this afternoon & evening. Melting snow could refreeze causing some black ice out there making roads slick. Follow safe driving practices tonight and tomorrow morning. I expect very little accumulations during the evening hrs. As I have been talking all week, winds are making a presence for most of the week. Today expect gusty winds up to 40 mph. As a cold front passes temps take a nosedive tonight to the upper teens, most likely low 20s here in the city. Tomorrow, I expect about a 15° heating to Saturday Afternoon Highs in the low to mid 30s. A rather nippy but sunny day. And the Abundant Sunshine is in store for us on Sunday, warming above normal again to upper 40s. This primarily due to a wind shift to the South. Photo below courtesy of NWS sums up the weekend outlook.




GFS Model guidance for Wednesday, February 29th (more info below)



Next week

Looks like the week starts off dry with mild temps but mid next week gets a little tricky. Once, what was showing a mid week Midwest snow storm a week ago is now showing a mild T'Storm event for Tuesday evening into Wednesday. The lastest GFS model (seen above) shows this storm system brewing This day looks to start off wet with near 60° warmth but temps falling with rain changing to snow. I expect lingering flurries for Thursday Morning and afternoon high temps in the low 40s. I think beyond that we'll trend upwards again. Keep in mind its still winter. We'll continue with temps in a tug of war contest as we begin the season transition process from Winter to Spring. Also, temperature swings do stir up storms so some days we'll have the chance for snow, rain, or both (in one day) as we see now. This continues for March. Also Dec-April are the top 5 most cloudiest months of the year, so its normal for these months to go with little sunshine. These months avg atleast 12 sunny days out of the month just a little f.y.i for ya!