March Mid Month Winter Summary

Warm then Cold, Warm then Cold, & Repeat. Sound familiar? This was the weather pattern for this winter. We are narrowing down on the final days of winter via the calendar. We are mid way through the month, and this is the time I recap the month and season, and give you my take on April.
First let me rundown my prediction last month. I give myself a grade of a B-. I knew before the month started that this month would be tricky to forecast. I predicted a cold start then a mild warm up with brief cold spells. Instead we had a cool start with brief warm spells then a warm up to record setting heat. Just a little off track but normal (minus record warmth) since March and April is spent transitioning from Winter to Spring. There will be Cold Days, there will be Warm Days during these 2 months. This lives to be true. More info on this later on.
Since there is no snow in the forecast for the next 7 days, Indianapolis finishes with 9.8" for the season. Below Normal, making this the 11th least snowiest winter.
Here's a list of our Top 10 Snowiest Days this Winter:

1. December 27, 2011-2.3"
2. February 14, 2012-1.7"
3. January 12, 2012-1.2"
4. January 2, 2012-0.7"
5. January 19, 2012-0.6"
6. January 28, 2012-0.6"
7. January 13, 2012-0.5"
8. January 20, 2012-0.4"
9. March 4, 2012-0.4"
10. March 5, 2012-0.3"

We have a few chances in the next few days to add to the winters precipitation total though. Currently we stand at 11.45", since December 1st. We're just a little over an inch below last yrs winter total.
Heres how the temps break down this Winter 2011-2012 Season:

1. December-Avg High 45° Avg Low 31° Average Monthly Temp 38°. This is +6° above normal.
2. January-Avg High 42° Avg Low 26° Average Monthly Temp 34°. This is +6° above normal.
3. February-Avg High 46° Avg Low 29° Average Monthly Temp 37°. This is +5° above normal.
4. March To Date-Avg High 62° Avg Low 39° Average Monthly Temp 51°. This is currently +9° above normal.
5. Winter Overall-Avg High 49° Avg Low 31°. Average Monthly Temp 40°. This is +7° above normal for the entire winter season.

Here's a look at the Records set so far for 2012:

1. January 31, 2012-Highest Minimum Temp Set of 50°. Previous Record 48° in 1988.
2. We had the Warmest Stretch of Mild Days to end January and Begin February on record.
3. February 29, 2012-Highest Minimum Temp Set of 45°. Previous Record 44° in 1976.
4. March 14, 2012-Record High Temperature Set of 81°. Previous Record 79° in 1990.
5. March 15, 2012-Record High Temperature Set of 80°. Previous Record 77° in 1977.

So here's my future predictions, these are my thoughts here:
March 16-22-High Temps will run in the 70s & 80s. Lows in the 50s & 60s. Temps avg 20+° above normal.
March 23-31-High Temps will run Mostly in the 60s with a few 50s and possibly another 70. Low will mostly fall in the 40s. May see a 30° low. Temps avg 0°-10° above normal.
April 1-30-High temps will mostly range in 50s & 60s. May see a few days with a high in the 40s and 70s. The Low Temps will fall mostly in the 40s and 50s. I expect to see a few days with lows in the 30s, especially in the beginning of the month. I don't expect to see temps frequently in the 80s, if it occurs. Also, I don't expect to frequently see overnight lows in the 60s, it it occurs.

During the beginning of the month of April, the Northern Jet Stream will dip South. This will usher in cooler air in Indianapolis. Low Temperatures reading could dip in the 30s a few times but mostly 40s with High Temperature Readings in the 50s, a few in 60s. I expect seasonal temperatures during this time and also the return of Severe Weather. This could also bring the threat of flurries as well.

A Quick Moving West to East Jet Stream will move in Mid Month. This will warm temps in the 60s, lows in 40s and 50s. I don't expect temps to climb too often in the 70s and 80s. Also, I expect the threat of severe weather throughout most of the month. This will give us above average precipitation. I think Temps will be below normal to normal for the first half of the month, and Normal to Above Normal for the second half of the month. We'll probably depart the Month of April less than 5° above normal.
If all holds true, this reaffirms what I mentioned above, March and April will have Cold Days and Warm Days.