Friday, March 16, 2012

St Patricks Day Weekend Weather Forecast

Good Afternoon! I know you can't tell but we are still in winter according to the calendar. There's some snow out there in the U.S. You'll have to travel out west to the Mountains of Washington. Most of the Snow is in the Central and Northern Rockies. Most of the cool weather is along the western seaboard in the Pacific Northwest, in California, Washington, and Oregon. Yesterday, 52, 56 & 61 was recorded for Seattle, Portland and San Diego, respectively. Their expecting Snow tomorrow in Reno, NV, Medford, OR and Spokane, WA. Currently, this makes up 9.1% of the Nations ground being covered in snow. Not a lot, and with bubble of warm air on top of Central & Eastern U.S. its not helping to keep the number up. In fact we are down 27.1% since March 1st. Bismark, North Dakota currently avgs a high of 40 and low of 20. Yesterday, their high was 67, low 31. Their forecasting 75-80 for this weekends highs and lows between 40-45. Pretty remarkeable. Snow melting fast.
Well here in Central Indiana we experiencing the 8th warmest March on Record. We broke record highs for Wednesday (81), and Thursday (80). We are on our way to mid to upper 70s this afternoon. Due to cloud cover its possible we may not hit 80s today to break todays 67 yr old record of 79 recorded back in 1945. I'm forecasting 77. We will be close. The last back to back 80° days in March was March 30th & 31st, 1986. That was nearly 26 yrs ago. We will continue to challenge records for next several days. Here's a few record highs yesterday.
  • Chicago, IL-81°

  • Washington, D.C.-82°

  • St. Louis, MO-81°

  • Madison, WI-82°

  • Norfolk, VA-87°

Well we have a unstable air mass. Yesterday, storms rolled through the state, most confined to the South. Four students were hospitalized due to lightning strikes in Indiana yesterday and also 2 people in Alabama were struck. When these storms come through, you hear that rumble of thunder, thats your forewarning to head indoors, immediately. Lightning can strike down anywhere, especially where metal is present.
Also, a few tornado touchdowns were reported in Dexter, Michigan. Unofficially rated as a strong EF-2, weak EF-3, with Winds 120+mph. And golf size hail & rainfall amounts of 2"-4" in Monroe County.
Here in Indy, not a drop recorded at Indy Airport. We did have some cloudy skies though but as mentioned most activity was in Southern Indiana.
Accuweather posted this image below in one of their blogs that illustrates the Spring Outlook in the U.S.
Above Normal and Precipitation can be expected for April here in Indiana, however it wont be as warm as this week. I think by next Friday we will begin to cool off. Our final days of the month we could be opening our days back in the 30s with highs in 50s, and low 60s. We will experience more seasonal temps. From March 23-31st, I think we we will only have highs 0°-10° above normal rather than 20°-30° above normal, which was what we are experiencing now.
We are averaging a temp of 62.5° this week, 42.6° this month. An average high of 75° this week, a high of 60.9° this month. An average low of 50° this week, a low of 38.3° this month. We are running +8° above normal for the month.
Our current rainfall for the month is 1.49". We avg 1.57" mid month and 3.56" for the entire month. That means, right now we are 0.08" below normal mid month and 2.07" below normal for the entire month.
This weekend is St Patricks Day Weekend. Over the the past 10 years the avg high is 55°. The average low is 35°, thus resulting in an average temp of 45°.
Here's my 10 worded forecast:

Today:
Mixed Sun & Clouds. Chance of T'Storm. Near Record. Mild. High 77. Record High 79 (1945)
Tonight:
Cloudy. Chance of Showers/T'Storm. Mild Low 63.
St Patricks Day
Partly Cloudy. Some Sun. Chance of Pop up Showers/T'Storm.
Near Record. Mild. High 80. Record High 76 (1894)
Saturday Night:
Partly Cloudy. Chance of Showers/T'Storm. Mild. Low 59.
Sunday
Mixed Sun & Clouds. Mild. Near Record. High 79. Record High 76 (1903)
Sunday Night
Partly Cloudy. Mild. Low 59.
Monday
Partly Sunny. Mild. Near Record. High 79. Record High 78 (1921)
Monday Night
Partly Cloudy. Mild. Low 59.
Tuesday:
Partly Sunny. Mild. Near Record. High 81. Record High 80 (1894)
Tuesday Night:
Partly Cloudy. Mild. Low 52.
Wednesday:
Parly Sunny. Mild. Near Record. High 79. Record High 82 (1907)
Wednesday Night:
Partly Cloudy. Mild. Low 59.
Thursday:
Partly Cloudy. Mild. High 75.
Thursday Night:
Chance of Rain. Low 53
Friday:
Mixed Sun & Clouds. Chance of Rain/T'Storm. High 71.
Friday Night:
Mostly Clear. Cooler. Low 50.
Saturday:
Mixed Sun & Clouds. Cooler. High 64.
Saturday Night:
Clear. Cooler. Low 44.
Sunday:
Partly Sunny. Cooler but Mild. High 59.

Precip
Since March 1st---1.49"
Sice January 1st--6.35"
Since Dec. 1st----11.45"

Snowfall
Since March 1st----0.7"
Since Jan 1st---- 7.5"
Since Nov. 1st-- 9.8"
**Currently only 9.1% of the Nations ground is covered in Snow. Thats down 31.4% from last month. Here's NOAA current snow depth map:

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