Rainy Days Ahead

Good Evening! Today marks the 3rd consecutive day, 9th day of the month, & 14th day of the Spring season below normal. Looks like we will add tomorrow to that list as well. It doesn't look like any frost was reported today around the state, winds supported this from happening. It was a chilly 35° shortly before 6AM though for our morning low. The cloud cover thats been on deck all weekend showed some breakage allowing some sunshine this afternoon and allowing temperatures to bump up just a few degrees to a high of 59°. We hit a afternoon high of 54° and a morning low of 41° for both Saturday and Sunday.

This week
Due to a tight pressure gradient we'll continue to be on the breezy side for tomorrow. Winds today reached 33 MPH with a peak wind gust of 44 MPH. Winds will continue to be on the breezy side tomorrow as well.
Well squeeze another Sunny day out tomorrow before rain chances return. Temps will warm to 60s tomorrow. By the evening, I say after 7 or 8pm theres a possibility for some minor showers but most of that will probably fall to the south of the city. Shouldn't get much out of this round but its the batch on Wednesday that could provide for a nice soggy day. Thats our best chance this week.
Thursday, rain chances continue, shouldn't get much. I don't think these are all day rains. Friday looks dry with a little sunshine before weekend rain chances return. Again, not complete washouts here.
Last week I was leaning towards a warmer solution but it appears temperaures may remain below 70° for the rest of the week and possibly the weekend. Almost, a daily chance for rain is in the forecast for the next 10 days.

Temperatures
So far this month we've had 6 days with high temperatures in the 50s (including today), 11 days in 60s, 5 in 70s, and one record breaking 80 degree day on April 3rd (84°).
We've had one day this month with a low in the 20s on the 11th (29°), 5 days with a morning low in 30s, 10 days in the 40s, and 7 of our mornings started in the 50s.
The average high this month for the period April 1-22nd is 66° and the average low is 44°. That makes the average temp 55°. Only 2° above normal. Looks like we'll finish with average temps where they should be.
Looking at last month, this month is cooler. If you haven't heard from other resources mentioning that last months record setting heat is not an indication as to whats to come, this month provides that proof. The weather is known to fool us. I expected to trend cooler this month. Next month, we could see the same of everything this month. Warm Days, and Cool Days, also some Wet Days.

Precipitation
The month started off wet on the first day leading me to believe that this month would continue to live to be the #1 most wettest month of the year. So far we've picked up 2.5" of rainfall. Thats still more than one and a quarter inch behind of our normal liquid amount for month and less than an inch for the year. We recorded more rainfall last month so far making that the wettest month of 2012 thus far. More rain chances the next 10 days will help add to the total amount for both the month and year.

Snowfall
No snow to speak of here this month. Most snow has been falling in the Sierras but since yesterday most snow has been accumulating out on the East Coast in over a two dozen cities. Some higher totals from this morning was:
Laurel, PA 13+"
Syvlania, PA 11.0+"
Mecklenburg, NY 8.5+"
Enfield, NY 8.2+"
Keysers Ridge, MD 5.0+"
Kingwood, WV 5.0+"
Our last snowflake in Indy flew down on the city back on March 4th finishing the winters season total at 9.8". The lowest the city has seen in 30 to as much as 120 yrs.

This week marks National Severe Weather Prepardness Week (April 22-28). The main objective here is inform to plan & practice how  or where to take shelter before Severe Weather Strikes and what to do after Severe Weather Strikes. What is severe weather? The following paragraph is an excerpt from Wikipedia.

"Severe weather refers to any dangerous meteorological phenomena with the potential to cause damage, serious social disruption, or loss of human life.Types of severe weather phenomena vary, depending on the latitude, altitude, topography, and atmospheric conditions. High winds, hail, excessive precipitation, and wildfires are forms and effects of severe weather, as are thunderstorms, downbursts, lightning, tornadoes, waterspouts, tropical cyclones, and extratropical cyclones. Regional and seasonal severe weather phenomena include blizzards, snowstorms, ice storms, and duststorms."

Here's a snapshot from a tweet on the NWS Twitter Page from this morning.

Ok put on your thinking cap, or do the research. Here's a quiz question:
Which of the following severe weather events killed the most people in 2010?
A. Snowstorm
B. Flooding
C. Freezing Rain
D. Lightning
E. Tornado

Tornadoes rip through homes and kill hundreds of people but most people are able to take shelter before this strikes. The lightning associated with thunderstorms can strike anywhere at anytime, if you are not inside you can be struck which could be fatal but not too many cases occur. Freezing Rain, if accumulated, can create icy roads and sidewalks. If you are not careful then you can slip and fall. On the road, you could lose your ability to control your vehicle and ram into another vehicle nearby or a stationary object. Not too many cases are reported fatal as with a snowstorm.
If you answered B to the question above you are correct. Flooding (particularly Flash Floods) is the #1 weather related killer. People usually drive down a flooded street thinking their vehicle will safely drive through it. WRONG! Flooded roads come with two risks. One, the unknown depth of water and two, the unknown condition of road beneath water. A flash flood is a rapid flooding of low-lying areas. Rushing water can knock you off your feet, and/or sweep your vehicle off the road. This could ultimately lead to death by drowning depending on the situation. NOAA NWS launched a campaign Turn Around, Don't Drown (TAAD) for this reason. The purpose was to warn people of the hazards that exist during flooding conditions for both drivers and pedestrians. For more info on TAAD click HERE.
Below is a map that illustrates the weather related deaths for 2010 (red) and how it compares to the average for the past 10 yrs (light blue) and 30 yrs (yellow). This image is available courtesy of NOAA NWS.

I've talked a little bout thunderstorm and winterstorm safety in previous blogs but as temperatures get warmer and drought conditions are more likely to exist drought and wildfire fatalities can present themselves especially during the Spring and Summer months. I will touch base on this topic in my next blog.

I've made some adjustments and corrections and reduced my detailed outlook from 15 day back to a 10 day future outlook. I found this to be ineffecient and more unreliable than simply just looking 10 days ahead.

Here's my updated 10 day outook:

Tonight-Mostly Clear. Chilly & Breezy. Winds W 5-15 MPH Gusts 25 MPH. Low 36

Tuesday-Sunny. Breezy. Tad bit warmer. Winds NW 10-15 MPH. Gusts 25 MPH. High 61.
Tuesday Night-Partly Cloudy. Chance of Rain South of I-70. Winds shift to South. Not as cold. Low 46.

Wednesday-Partly to Mostly Cloudy. PM Showers/T'Storms. Warmer. High 69.
Wednesday Night-Showers/TStorm. Not as cool. Low 54.

Thursday-AM Showers/T'Storms ending. PM Mixed Sun & Clouds. High 64.
Thursday Night-Partly Cloudy. Cooler. Low 40.

Friday-Mixed Sun & Clouds. Chance of Rain. Not as warm. High 58.
Friday Night-Mostly Cloudy. Showers/T'Storms. Low 44.

Saturday-Mostly Cloudy. Showers/T'Storms. High 62.
Saturday Night-Mostly cloudy. Low 48.

Sunday-Mostly Cloudy. Isolated Thunderstorms. High 67.
Sunday Night-Mostly Cloudy. Low 45.

Monday-Partly Cloudy, some sunshine. Small rain chance.High 65.
Monday Night-Partly Cloudy. Low 48.

Tuesday-Sunny. High 68.
Tuesday Night-Partly Cloudy. Low 55

Wednesday-Mixed Sun & Clouds. High 70
Wednesday-Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Rain. Low 54

Thursday-Mostly Cloudy. Scattered Showers/T'Storms. High 67.
Thursday Night-Mostly to Partly Cloudy. Chance of Rain. Low 48.