Sunday, April 15, 2012

Work Week Forecast

Good Evening! Its been a stormy wet weekend for much of the U.S. and it it not done just yet. Friday, rain moved through the west coast, with snow up in the Mountains. Shift the attention to the Plains Saturday, where intense storms moved through that featured quite a hefty number of tornadoes. If you take a look at the photo below this illustrates the storm reports.


These tornado numbers are unconfirmed. Usually it could a few days up to week to confirm if damages were done by one tornado or several tornadoes. Below is an excerpt of an article about The Enhanced Fujita Scale (EF Scale) from SPC. This excerpt explains how tornadoes become classified as an EF-0 to EF-5 tornado

Whats a EF0 to EF5 tornado?
An EF0 tornado is the weakest. This could be on the ground for only a few seconds and do little to no damage with wind speeds 65-85 MPH. Keep in mind wind speeds are estimated based upon damage done to a specific area.
An EF-1 tornado is also weak but very likely to little damage with wind speeds needing to be 86-110 MPH.
An EF-0 and EF-1 tornadoes is fairly common.
EF-2 tornadoes are more proned to damage than a EF-0 to EF-1. This is the earliest classification that can rip the roofs of a home, pick cars off the ground, and snap large trees in half. Winds speeds of 111-135 MPH need to be reach for this classification.
Although not uncommon to occur, its not too frequent for tornadoes rated EF-3 and EF-4 to occur. Winds must reach no more than 165 MPH for EF-3 and 200 MPH for EF-4.
An EF-5 is the strongest but rarest tornado that can touchdown. 56 occurences have been confirmed in the past 60 yrs in the U.S. The worst was the 1953 Waco, Texas Outbreak. This tornado caused billions of dollars in damaged to businesses, homes, churches, atleast 2,000 cars and killed 114 people. 61 of these people resided in one block. This made this the 11th deadliest outbreak in the U.S.
The last EF-5 tornado occured last year on May 24th in Oklahoma.
I'd like to note before February 2007, tornadoes were ranked without the E. The newest tornado classification was modified and then replaced. The added E in the newest classification system stands for Enhanced. Also, as a quick reminder the F stands for Fujita. For more information on this change click HERE.
So far this year (as of April 13) there have been 497 tornadoes reported of which 281 have been confirmed. 124 (EF-0), 81 (EF-1), 57 (EF-2), 15 (EF-3), and 3 (EF-4). NO EF-5 have been confirmed at this point. As mentioned above these are rare and less likely to frequently occur.
Back to local weather here in Indianapolis, after a dry, cool week we picked up over an inch of rain Saturday and warming temperatures. We hit a high of 65 and 61 for Friday and Saturday, respectively, after highs in the 50s for Tuesday and Wednesday. The high temperature for Thursday reached 61° but the day started 1° shy of freezing for the morning low so much of the was cool as well. The high temperature was reached between 4-5 P.M.
Today remained on the dry and sunny side. Temperatures rose after midnight to 70s shortly after 10am after a early low of 60°. Temperatures reached upper 70s at 4pm a tad bit closer to 80s. Temperatures are expected to remain above normal for much of the week. Mid 60s are normal for the week. Expecting highs in upper 60s perhaps low 70s before a weekend cool down and perhaps more severe weather across the U.S.
More rain chances overnight tonight, Early Monday. Could see a few flashes of lightning, feel a bit of a breeze, and hear a rumble of thunder or two but nothing severe for Central Indiana. The western portion of the state is under a slight risk for severe weather though. Tornadoes will not be a concern for Hoosiers though.
The final weeks of the month looks to remain fairly normal for temperatures. Since we are looking at semi dry work week the monthly precipitation amount may end Normal as well. We do have more rain chances Thursday late afternoon into Friday. But it could get sunny and dry again for a few days.
Also, the rain played a big part in keeping the pollen count down by 20% but rising temperatures today and a little kick in the winds will not alleviate the allergy conditions for Monday and Tuesday as levels are forecasted to be high for these days.


Next Fridays Rain System


Here's my 10 Detailed Outlook. Updated Temperature/Precip/Snowfall Data

Tonight-Increasing Clouds. Showers/T'Storms after midnight. Gusty Winds.
Winds S 20-30 MPH. Gusts to 40 MPH. Low 59.

Monday-Showers/T'Storms ending by noon. PM sunshine. Not as Warm.
Still Breezy. Winds SW 15-25 MPH. High 69.
Monday Night-Mostly Clear. Cooler. Not as Breezy. Winds NW 5-15 MPH. Low 43.

Tuesday-Sunny. Calm Winds. Winds NW 3-7 MPH. Seasonal Temps. High 64.
Tuesday Night-Partly Cloudy. Cooler. Low 43.

Wednesday-Sunny. High 65.
Wednesday Night-Cloudy. Low 48.

Thursday-Mixed Sun & Clouds. High 68.
Thursday Night-Cloudy. Showers/T'Storms. Low 54.

Friday-Showers/T'Storms. High 67.
Friday Night-Mostly Cloudy. Isolated T'Storms. Low 47.

Saturday-AM Showers Possible Otherwise Partly Cloudy, Some Sun & Cooler. High 55
Saturday Night-Partly to Mostly cloudy. Cool. Low 41.

Sunday-Mixed Sun & Clouds. High 61
Sunday Night-Partly Cloudy/ Low 43.

Monday-Mostly Sunny. High 66.
Monday Night-Cloudy. Low 47.

Tuesday-Mostly Sunny.High 66
Tuesday Night-Mostly Clear Skies, Low 44

Wednesday-Mixed Sun & Clouds. High 62
Wednesday Night-Partly Cloudy. Low 47

Temperature Data

Todays High Temp-----78* This Temperature is 15° Above Normal. Avg High today 63°.
Todays Low Temp---- 60. This Temperature is 17° Above Normal. Avg Low this day 43°.
APR 2012 Avg Temp--54. This Temperature is 4° Above Normal. Avg Temp 1-14th should be 50.
*This temperature is the highest as of 6pm and unlikely to rise. This looks to be the official high.

Precipitation Data
Saturday TTL---1.20"
Since APR 1----1.90"
April Average--3.81"
Since Jan 1----10.90"

Snowfall Data
Since April 1st---NONE
Since Jan. 1st----7.3"
Since Nov 1st---9.8"

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