Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Cool Now, Warm Again Later

Its been a warm start to the month in Indiana. Indianapolis recorded 70° on the first, 84° the 2nd, 85° the 3rd, 79° the 4th, 81° the 5th, 84° the 6th, 83° the 7th, and 72° yesterday. This puts an average temp of nearly of 80° for this time period, nearly 7° above the normal average temperature of 73° for the month and 10° above the normal average temperature of 70° for the first week. The monthly average temperature of 80° for May is more typical for Atlanta.
As cooler air spills into the state, we'll briefly cool down to mostly average temperatures in the low 70s. Some areas in the state could see high temperatures falling into the 60s, below normal. In fact this has happened on this Wednesday Afternoon, as much of the state has recorded mid to upper 60s by 5pm. This is basically what temperatures was forecasted to look like for May 7th-14th, below normal to normal.

After this brief stint of cooler temperatures, we'll gradually begin a warm up. Ensemble Forecasts shows a warm up on the way. In the picture below to the left,the states temperatures looks to be normal in the mid 70s for May 13th-20th, particularly May 13th-15th. On the picture below to the right, it depicts warmer temperatures beginning the 16th up until atleast the 23rd. Temperatures during this time will hover around or in the 80s, above normal.
These temperatures are not a daily forecast but rather an average forecast for the specified period. In terms of precipitation, I have not idenified many rain chances within the next 10 days. If any, most will be brief or light showers. GFS model below shows less than 1" precipitation total for the next 240 hours ending May 19th for practically ALL of Indiana. This however is subject to change. Will update any changes as they become available. By the way, the red and pink are heavy rainfall totals. Much stormy weather might be expeced stretching from the Southeast to the Mid Atlantic over the next week during this cool down.

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