Storms and a Cool Down on the Way

Good Evening Hoosiers! Another triple digit day with a non-record breaking high temperature of 103°. What's new? Its summer and its a hot one too! Since Mid -March (March 14th) we've now had 9 days in the 100s (first occurence June 28th), 29 days in the 90s (first occurence May 26th), and 35 Days in the 80s (first occurence March 14th). That makes up nearly 55% (73 days) of the past 133 days with a high temperature recorded 80° & above since March 14th. Indianapolis has broken over 20 record highs and low temperatures this year. Here's my updated chart.

Date of New Record 2012	Record High Temperature	Previous Record High Temperature	Record Highest Minimum Temp.	Previous Record Highest Minimum Temp.
JAN. 31st	N/A	N/A	50°	48° (1988)
FEB. 29th	N/A	N/A	45°	44° (1976)
MAR 14th	81°	79° (1990)	N/A	N/A
MAR 15th	80°	77° (1977)	N/A	N/A
MAR 17th	77°	76° (1894)	N/A	N/A
MAR. 18th	80°	76° (1903)	60° TIED	60° (1874)
MAR. 19th	82°	78° (1921)	64°	60° (1903)
MAR. 20th	83°	80° (1894)	63°	62° (1921)
MAR. 21st	84°	82° (2007)	62°	58° (2011)
APR. 3rd	84°	83° (1946)	N/A	N/A
JUN 28th	104°	101° (1934)	N/A	N/A
JUN 29th	103°	100° (1934)	N/A	N/A
JUN 30th	97° TIED	97° (1933)	N/A	N/A
July 5th	103°	99° (1936)	N/A	N/A
July 6th	105°	99° (1988)	N/A	N/A
July 7th	105°	101° (1936)	N/A	N/A
July 16th	98° TIED	98° (1988)	N/A	N/A
July 17th	101°	100° (1887)	N/A	N/A
July 23th	102° TIED	102° (1934)	N/A	N/A

The following two images are snapshots of the U.S. Records Chart from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. As you can see so far this year we've had over 26,000 records set this year since January 1st, and now (likely) more than 4,000 record highs set this month. Its not just hot in Indiana, its hot everywhere.
July 2012
We are a little over halfway through the month and we are seeing one of our most warmest Julys on record. We've had our hottest days of the year this month and after a pretty dry start we managed to finally pick up back-to-back days of rainfall last week. This month we've broken 4 Record Highs and Tied 2. We've set a record for the longest stretch of dry weather in over 100 years. Since record keeping began in 1871, the NWS recorded a 45 day stretch of dry days with only 0.09" during the period of August 16th-September 26, 1908. That streak was broke last week and reset to 47 days with 0.09" (June 1-July 17). The streak ended when we picked up a two day total of 0.68" of rain for the 18th & 19th. Friday, July 20th put a end to the longest period of days with temps above 70. What would have been 23, ended up being 22 consecutive days with temps 70° & above, when the thermometer read 69° right before midnight. This still ended up beating out the old record of 20 days set back from June 26-July 15, 1921. This day was also the coolest day of July in terms of daytime high temperatures with 82° but that next morning on Saturday the 21st, currently holds as the coolest morning this month in terms of low temperatures when the thermometer read 61° around 6AM.
The hottest days of the month occurred July 5th & 6th when the thermometer read 105°. Our coolest daytime high for the month is 82° recorded July 20th, the second day of July below 90. The warmest low temp for not only this month but for the 21st century is 81° set at 4:56 the morning of Saturday, July 7th. The coolest morning low recorded was 61° on the 21st.
The avg high temperature through July 25th sits at 96.5°. This is 11.5° above normal.
The avg low temperature through July 25th sits at 73.1°. This is 7.1° above normal.
The avg monthly temperatures through July 25th sits at 84.8°. This is 9.3° above normal.
We've picked up 0.68" of precipitation this month. The normal is 3.80" through July 25th.
We are now running 3.12" below normal in precpitation for the month through July 25th.

Meteorological Summer(June-July-August)
We are now a little more than halfway through the season and its been a pretty warm one. Over 80% of the past 55 days have been above normal. The average high for this season sits at 91° thats 7.7° above nomal. The average low for this season sits at 67.4°, thats 3.6° above normal. The average temp for the season sits at 79.2°. This temperature is 5.6° above the normal 73.6° for this period (June 1-Jul 25th). This season is currently the #1 Warmest summer on record. Here's the Top Five list:
    2012---79.2°
1) 1874---78.6°
2) 1936---78.5°
3) 1934---78.2°
4) 2010---78.1°
5) 2011---77.6°

Here's the list of days where precipitation has fallen this season (since June 1st):
1) June 1st-----Trace Amounts
2) June 2nd----0.03"
3) June 3rd-----Trace Amounts
4) June 4th-----0.02"
5) June 11th---Trace Amounts
6) June 29th---0.04"
7) June 30th--Trace Amounts
8) July 1st------Trace Amounts
9) July 8th------Trace Amounts
10) July 14th---Trace Amounts
11) July 18th---0.40"
12) July 19th---0.28"
13) July 20th----Trace Amounts
14) July 24th----Trace Amounnts
As you can see we've picked up 0.77" since June 1st. We've only had 5 out of the past 55 days with measurable rainfall. Measurable Rainfall is anything 0.01" or higher.
Typically, May-June-July (solar summer) is the wettest months of the year. The average precipitation during this period is 13.85" (though July 30th) while the avg is 13.10" through July 25th. So far, we've only recorded 3.47" which is 9.63" below normal through July 25th. We've only recorded 12 days with measurable rainfall since May 1st. For quick reference here's a list of days where precipitation fell for May.
1) May 1st-----1.48"
2) May 4th----Trace
3) May 6th----Trace
4) May 7th----0.48"
5) May 8th----0.01"
6) May 9th----0.13"
7) May 21st---0.10"
8) May 29th---0.36"
9) May 31st---0.14"


A "Rim of Fire" pattern has been sitting West of Indiana. I came across this image below from Mr. Paul Poteet's webpage today which simply explains what happens in this pattern.

Any rain systems that develop go around this High Pressure System. Clusters of Thunderstorms ride down along the outer rim of this Blocking Pattern (if you want to call it that). Most precipitation the past few few days has fallen in Northern, Northeastern, and Eastern Indiana. The system Tuesday was responsible for bringing a daily record 1.69" rainfall in the Twin Cities, over a half inch rainfall in Chicago, and nearly an inch of precipitation in Fort Wayne. This system caused quite a stir to whether these complex clusters of thunderstorms Tuesday was classified as "derecho" or not. Read Accuweather's write up HERE. If you can remember back, a "derecho" swept past Indiana back on June 29th. Read the write up from the NWS in Northern indiana HERE.


After a brief break today more powerful violent storms are expected to sweep the state Thursday ending Friday Morning when two air masses are expected to collide. This is also known as convergence. We can expect a squall line of thunderstorms that may develop another "derecho" for the state. This system may have a better shot at bringing much needed rainfall to Central Indiana but the Northern Half of the state has the best shot for precipitation. CPC has placed ALL of Indiana under a slight risk for Severe Storms tomorrow. Dangerous Lightning, Damaging Winds, and Heavy Downpours are our biggest threats. There is always atleast a 1% chance for a tornado to develop with ANY thunderstorm.



Keep this in mind:


Brickyard 400 Weekend
The North Atlantic Oscillation is going into negative phases. What this means for Indianapolis NO TRIPLE DIGITS and barely any 90s will be in the forecast to finish July. If temps reach 90s it will be low 90s. I really don't expect it to get too far particularly for the race day weekend. Friday, once Thursday storm system passes, the temps will slip back to upper 80s for high and remain there for the weekend. Could see some sunshine Friday but expect ÀLL DAY sushine for Saturday and Sunday. It will be a dry weekend.


Next Week
Another Relief from the Heat is on the way. We"ll start it off Sunday, dry, in the upper 80s. Some chances for pop up thunderstorms will occur Monday and Tuesday. Over the past few months these thuderstorms have been pretty selective and not everyone will see those much needed raindrops but all I can say is the chance may be there. For Indianapolis, these systems have been huge let downs all summer long.

Here's our quick 6 day outlook to finish the month:
Tonight-Very Warm & Muggy. Low 80.
Thursday-AM More Clouds than Sun. PM Chance for Severe Thunderstorms. High 96.
Friday-Storms ending early. Mostly Sunny. High 88.
Saturday-Sunny & Beautiful. Not that Hot. High 87.
Sunday-Sunny & Beautiful. High 88.
Monday-Mixed Sun & Clouds. Chance of T'Storms. High 91.
Tuesday-Mixed Sun & Clouds. Chance of T'Storms. High 89.