Sunday, July 22, 2012

Summer Heat Sizzles On, More Rain Chances Too

Good Sunday Afternoon Hoosiers! The weekend cool down was a tease. It was brief and did not last. Most of Friday temperatures lingered around in the 70s from Central Indiana & South due to a combination of clouds, fog, and patchy light drizzle. These clouds did clear from North to South and some late day sunshine allowed for some late day heating to a 5PM high of 82°.

Later that evening temps fell back to 69° right before midnight. This put an end to the record streak for most consecutives days with temps 70°+. The record went down as 22 days from June 28-July 19, 2012. This beats the previous record of 20 consecutive days set from June 26-July 15, 1921.
Saturday Morning Lows dipped to a 6AM temperature reading of 61°. The coolest since June 27th. The heat returned without the uncomfortable humidity which actually made for a pleasant Saturday with a high of 91° shortly before 5PM. With Dew Points in the low 50s at 3PM, that number began to sloooowly creep up. It was up to 60 by 11PM. Once dew point temps reach the 60s it starts to feel a bit uncomfortable outside. Dew Points are a measure of the amount of moisture in the atmosphere. The higher the number the more heavy the air will feel.
If your going to be engaged in outdoor activities you might feel you"ll be sweating more but the thing is with dew points 60° and above, the atmosphere is not all that conducive (helpful) to the evaporation process your body takes to keep you cool. Thats why its important to limit strenous activities, wear loose fit clothing, drink plenty of water, and stay in the shade during the summer months. Dew Points go hand and hand with Surface Temps and Relative Humidity Levels when factoring the Heat Index Values.
The low this morning was 68° and looking at a high today in the mid, if not upper, 90s. Today will mark the 35th 90° day of the year. The record is 58 days set back in 1983, last year we had 42 days while the yearly average is 15.
Speaking of records, we tied one and broken one record high temperature early last week. This brings the total to 14 record highs broken and 2 tied. We still stand with 5 Warmest Lows broken and 1 tied as well. Here's the updated records chart.

Date of
New Record
2012
Record
High
Temperature
Previous
Record
High
Temperature
Record
Highest
Minimum Temp.
Previous
Record Highest
Minimum Temp.
JAN. 31st N/A N/A 50° 48°
(1988)
FEB. 29th N/A N/A 45° 44°
(1976)
MAR 14th 81° 79°
(1990)
N/A N/A
MAR 15th 80° 77°
(1977)
N/A N/A
MAR 17th 77° 76°
(1894)
N/A N/A
MAR. 18th 80° 76°
(1903)
60°
TIED
60°
(1874)
MAR. 19th 82° 78°
(1921)
64° 60°
(1903)
MAR. 20th 83° 80°
(1894)
63° 62°
(1921)
MAR. 21st 84° 82°
(2007)
62° 58°
(2011)
APR. 3rd 84° 83°
(1946)
N/A N/A
JUN 28th 104° 101°
(1934)
N/A N/A
JUN 29th 103° 100°
(1934)
N/A N/A
JUN 30th 97°
TIED
97°
(1933)
N/A N/A
July 5th 103° 99°
(1936)
N/A N/A
July 6th 105° 99°
(1988)
N/A N/A
July 7th 105° 101°
(1936)
N/A N/A
July 16th 98°
TIED
98°
(1988)
N/A N/A
July 17th 101°
100°
(1887)
N/A N/A

July 2012
We are a little over halfway through the month and we are seeing one of our most warmest Julys. We've had our hottest days of the year this month and after a pretty dry start we managed to finally pick up back-to-back days of rainfall. Alot happened in the weather department last week. First, we tied a record high and broke a record high temperature (see chart above). Also, we set a record for the longest stretch of dry weather in over 100 years. Since record keeping began in 1871, the NWS recorded a 45 day stretch of dry days with only 0.09" during the period of August 16th-September 26, 1908. We broke that record last week and reset it to now 47 days with 0.09" (June 1-July 17). The streak ended when we picked up a two day total of 0.68" of rain for the 18th & 19th. Lastly, a cool Friday put a end to the longest period of days with temps above 70. What would have been 23, ended up being 22 consecutive days with temps 70° & above, when the thermomter read 69° right before midnight. This still ended up beating out the old record of 20 days set back from June 26-July 15, 1921. Friday was the coolest day of July in terms of daytime high temperatures with 82° but Saturday holds the coolest morning this month in terms of low temperatures when the thermometer read 61° around 6AM.
The hottest days of the month occurred July 5th & 6th when the thermometer read 105°. Our coolest daytime high for the month is 82° recorded July 20th, the second day of July below 90. The warmest low temp for not only this month but for the 21st century is 81° set at 4:56 the morning of Saturday, July 7th. The coolest morning low recorded was 61° on the 21st. Our low this morning was 68°.
The avg high temperature through July 21st sits at 96°. This is 11° above normal.
The avg low temperature through July 21st sits at 72.9°. This is 7.3° above normal.
The avg monthly temperatures through July 21st sits at 84.4°. This is 8.7° above normal.
We've picked up 0.68" of precipitation this month. The normal is 3.25" through July 21st.
We are now running 2.57" below normal in precpitation for the month through July 21st.

Meteorological Summer(June-July-August)
We are now halfway through the season and its been a pretty warm one. Over 80% of the past 51 days have been above normal. The average high for this season is 90.3° thats 7.4° above nomal. The average low for this season is 66.8°, thats 3.4° above normal. The average temp for the season is at 78.5°. This temperature is 5.3° above the normal 73.2° for this period (June 1-Jul 21st). This season is tied with the 2nd warmest summer on record. Here's the current top five list:
1) 1874---78.6°
2) 1936---78.5°
    2012---78.5°
3) 1934---78.2°
4) 2010---78.1°
5) 2011---77.6°

Here's the list of days where precipitation has fallen this season (since June 1st):
1) June 1st-----Trace Amounts
2) June 2nd----0.03"
3) June 3rd-----Trace Amounts
4) June 4th-----0.02"
5) June 11th---Trace Amounts
6) June 29th---0.04"
7) June 30th--Trace Amounts
8) July 1st------Trace Amounts
9) July 8th------Trace Amounts
10) July 14th---Trace Amounts
11) July 18th---0.40"
12) July 19th---0.28"
13) July 21st----Trace Amounts
As you can see we've picked up 0.77" since June 1st. We've only had 5 out of the past 51 days with measurable rainfall. Measurable Rainfall is anything 0.01" or higher.
Typically, May-June-July (solar summer) is the wettest months of the year. The average precipitation during this period is 13.85" (though July 30th) while the avg is 12.55" through July 21st. So far, we've only recorded 3.47" which is 9.08" below normal through July 21st. We've only recorded 12 days with measurable rainfall since May 1st. For quick reference here's a list of days where precipitation fell for May.
1) May 1st-----1.48"
2) May 4th----Trace
3) May 6th----Trace
4) May 7th----0.48"
5) May 8th----0.01"
6) May 9th----0.13"
7) May 21st---0.10"
8) May 29th---0.36"
9) May 31st---0.14"

Last Weeks Observations for July 15th-21st

SUN MON TUES WED THURS FRI SAT
High Temp959810199938291
Low Temp72747776736961
PrecipNONENONENONE0.40"0.28"TRACENONE
Peak Wind Gust (MPH)23203048302232

The average high for last week was 94.1° while the avg low was 72°. This puts the weeks avg temp at 83°.

This Week
We'll start the week off hot, sunny, & dry as high pressure takes the wheel Sunday and Monday. We are looking at temps in the mid 90s Sunday but scorching heat West will contine to push East into Indiana as the dog days of summer continues. This will push Monday High Temperatures into triple digits. A "Rim of Fire" pattern is shaping up in which triple digits highs will be in the forecast Monday-Wednesday along with some daily chances for storms Tuesday-Friday. Any storm clusters that materializes could be severe. Will monitor closely and update in the coming days.



Drought Analysis
We are currently in one of the worst droughts in Indianapolis Weather History (since 1871). Even worse than the Dust Bowl years of the 1930s. These abnormally dry conditions the past few months have prompted 92% of the state to issue burn bans and some areas have put out mandatory water bans to keep the water supply up. It will take months, maybe years to recover from a drought this extreme.
Check this out:
In 2010, during the Thanksgiving Holiday, portions of Southern Indiana received up to 6" of rainfall in about a 2-day period. The real kicker here is river flooding did not occur. This is after having a prolonged sretch of dry weather.
At this point the only way to recover from a drought with such severity right now is to receive regular weekly rainfall amounts over an inch for maybe 2 months straight. One 3" rainfall day here and there will NOT alleviate our problems. We need something continuous and consistent. Something that gets deep down into the soils and won't dry up quickly. We need a system thats widespread. Remnants from a tropical storm would be our best bet. Right now, there's nothing of that sort to be foreseen. It will only continue to get worse for more weeks to come if we do not continue to get rainfall. We do have several chances this week but can't be promised
Many missed out on their own 4th of July celebrations this year as fireworks were banned for much of the state. After the holiday, Mayor Greg Ballard issued an order to ban personal fireworks until December 31st in Marion County. If we go the winter with little precipitation/snowfall this ban might be extended and its possible this could cancel plans for next summers celebration. To keep this in mind, only time will tell what happens next.
These drought conditions have sparked up numerous grass fires these past 2 months. Either from the weather or from stupidity. Burn bans are issued for a reason. Failure to comply can lead to fines or jail time but importantly, lead to serious injury or death. Do NOT throw cigarette buds out your car windows or flick them out on the ground. Also, in the near future, autumn will be rolling around and many will want to have campfires. I hate to tell you this but burn bans prohibits bonfires and campfires. DO NOT have them. Please be smart and watch those BBQ grills. Make Safety your #1 Priority. Its dangerous out there.

Persistent Dryness+Hot Temps+Low Relative Humidity+Moderate Winds=Wildfires


The following is a breakdown for last week vs this weeks drought conditions and also the latest Drought Map issued from CPC (Thursday). This information is Current until CPC releases their latest weekly analysis later this week on Thursday Morning.


This
Week
Last
Week
Difference
Abnormally
Dry
100% 100% UNCHANGED
Moderate
Drought
99.04% 99.0% UNCHANGED
Severe
Drought
87.04% 80.15% +6.89%
Extreme
Drought
53.61% 29.77% +23.84%
Except.
Drought
0.49% 0.00% +0.09%



Rainfall Deficit Around the State
Location Year to Date Precipitation (through July 21) Departure from Average Precip since June 1 Departure from Average
Indianapolis 15.83 -  9.07 0.77 -6.73
Evansville 13.56 -13.20 2.18 -4.34
Lafayette 12.47** -  8.49 1.72 -5.22
Muncie 15.35 -  7.74 3.11 -4.63
Terre Haute 12.98** -13.28 0.68 -7.14
Bloomington 13.10** -15.41 1.35 -7.27
Shelbyville 13.72 -11.72 0.67 -6.99
Ft. Wayne 13.69 -8.17 3.34 -3.72
South Bend 17.17 -  3.01 5.87 -0.59
Indy - Eagle Creek 13.53 -10.86 0.39 -7.19
**Precipitation not available on some days since January 1.


WTHR Channel 13 Meteorologist Chikage Windler shared this photo below in one of her most recent weather blog. What a spectular view from the powerful storms that swept the state last Thursday.


Here's My 10 Day Detailed Outlook and Updated Temperature/Precipitation Data

Today-Sunny & Hot. Becoming Ucomfortable. High 96.
Sunrise-6:35AM | Sunset-9:07PM | Duration of Day-14 HR 31 MIN 25 SECS | Daylight Lost-1 MIN 37 SECS
Tonight-Warm & Muggy. Low 77.

Monday-Sunny & Hot. Near Record. High 101.Record High: 102 (1934)
Sunrise-6:36AM | Sunset-9:06PM | Duration of Day-14 HR 29 MIN 25 SECS| Daylight Lost-1 MIN 39 SECS
Monday PM-Partly Cloudy. Chance of T'Storms. Low 78.

Tuesday-Sunny & Hot. Chance of T'Storms. High 101. Record High: 105 (1934)
Sunrise-6:37AM | Sunset-9:05PM | Duration of Day-14 HR 28 MIN 3 SECS | Daylight Lost-1 MIN 42 SECS
Tuesday PM-Partly Cloudy. Chance of T'Storms. Low 77.

Wednesday-Partly Sunny. Chance of T'Storms. High 99. Record High: 105 (1934)
Sunrise-6:38AM | Sunset-9:04PM | Duration of Day-14 HR 26 MIN 18 SECS | Daylight Lost-1 MIN 44 SECS
Wednesday PM-Partly Cloudy. Chance of Isolated T'Storms. Low 75

Thursday-Mixed Sun & Clouds. Chance of T'Storms. High 97.
Sunrise-6:39AM | Sunset-9:03PM | Duration of Day-14 HR 24 MIN 32 SECS | Daylight Lost-1 MIN 46 SECS
Thursday PM-Mostly Cloudy. Chance of T'Storms. Low 73.

Friday-Mixed Sun & Clouds. Chance of T'Storms. Not As Hot. High 88.
Sunrise-6:40AM | Sunset-9:02PM | Duration of Day-14 HR 22 MIN 43 SECS | Daylight Lost-1 MIN 48 SECS
Friday PM-Partly Cloudy. Low 69.

Saturday-Pleasant with Plenty of Sunshine. High 89.
Sunrise-6:40AM | Sunset-9:01PM | Duration of Day-14 HR 20 MIN 53 SECS | Daylight Lost-1 MIN 50 SECS
Saturday PM-Clear Skies. Low 70.

Sunday-Sunny & Hot. High 90.
Sunrise-6:41AM | Sunset-9:00PM | Duration of Day-14 HR 19 MIN | Daylight Lost-1 MIN 52 SECS
Sunday PM-Clear Skies. Warm. Low 71.

Monday-Sunny & Hot. High 93.
Sunrise-6:42AM | Sunset-8:59PM | Duration of Day-14 HR 17 MIN 6 SECS | Daylight Lost-1 MIN 54 SECS
Monday PM-Partly Cloudy. Low 72.

Tuesday-Mixed Sun & Clouds. High 92.
Sunrise-6:43AM | Sunset-8:58PM | Duration of Day-14 HR 15 MIN 9 SECS | Daylight Lost-1 MIN 56 SECS
Tuesday PM-Partly Cloudy. Low 72.

July 2012 Temperature Data(July 1st-21st)
Actual Avg High---96°. This is 11° above the normal 85°.
Actutal Avg Low---72.9°. This is 6.9° above the normal 66°.
Actual Avg Temp--84.4°. This is 8.4° above the normal 76°.

July 2012 Precipitation Data**
Precip Since July 1-----0.68". This is -2.57" from normal.
Precip Since June 1----0.77". This is -6.73" from normal.
Precip Since May 1----3.56". This is -9.08" from normal.
Precip Since Jan 1---15.83". This is -9.07" from normal.
**-The information in this section is current as of 11:59PM on July 21st.

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