We finally snapped a consecutive 14 day below normal streak. From October 26-November 8 the avg temperature has been 5 to 12 degrees below normal. On avg, we are running 9-10° below normal per day. A season that has produced 65% of its falls days in Indianapolis below normal. Which equates to 45 out of the past 69 days.
The avg high for this time of the year is 56°. Todays actual high was 63°. This was 6° above normal.
The avg low for this time of the year is 38°. The actual low this morning was 32°. This was 6° below normal.
The avg daily temperature (combination of the high and low) is 47°. The actual avg daily temperature for today was 48°. This was 1° above normal.
Since we are on the backside of high pressure this has allowed us to pump in a southerly air flow. This along with sunny skies has given a temperature boost allowing us to reach that high of 63° today. From here, it will only get warmer. Some parts of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio will be anywhere from 10°-20° below normal this weekend.
Saturday
The sunshine will continue. It will be a little breezy out with winds 10-20mph. Could see gusts to 25mph. Highs will top out in the mid to upper 60s. While the weather will look nice check out whats happening out west. Thunderstorms and a Snowstorm. Though this will likely weaken as it makes it to Indiana. More details below.
Sunday
It will continue to be mild, breezy and Sunny with temperatures in the upper 60s, approaching 70. Some high level clouds will be in the sky too which is indication that a storm is coming. Call it "Calm before the Storm" if you like. Last nice day we'll have for quite awhile.
Monday & Tuesday
First thing, the high temperature will occur at midnight. A squall line of thunderstorms and cold front will move through the city during the pre-dawn hours. Monday morning rush hours looks nasty. We'll see gusty winds, heavy downpours, and hail. Rainfall totals will add up to about an inch but some could see more in the state. With the falling temperatures, wouldn't be surprised to see a light wintry mix or some snowflakes. Not looking at any measurable snowfall here. Temperatures tank from around 60° at midnight Sunday night to upper 20s, low 30s Tuesday Morning. I think we'll keep some clouds in the morning. If the clouds persist throughout much of the day Tuesday then temperatures will stay around the 40° mark. If we can squeeze out some sunshine we might make it up to the mid 40s.
In wake of the powerful cold front that sweeps past the state, skies will clear Tuesday Night and temperatures could fall down into the mid 20s. We'll have our second coldest morning of the season thus far. Wouldn't be surprised to see some areas in the state reach the upper teens or low 20s. The potential might be there for this to be the seasons coldest night for some. For Indianapolis, 25° is the lowest temperatures so far for the season which occured the morning of November 5th. The last time the temperature was below 25° was on February 26th. The remainder of the week looks clear and sunny.
UPCOMING....
Blocking pattern backs off and NAO(North Atlantic Oscillation) temporarily goes positive. What does that mean? Well, once we get past the few cool days next week, temperatures will quickly warm back up towards the 50s for next weekend. As the average temperature continues to drop, this means we'll be normal to maybe even a few degrees above normal. Not looking at a drastic warmup but a different outcome to late mid month than what we just experienced the first 8 days of the month. The pattern wants to go cooler again late month around Turkey Day. Here's my breakdown from normal for the rest of the month;
November 9th-11th: 10-15° above normal.
November 12th-16th: 1-12° below normal.
November 17th-21st: 0-5° above normal.
November 22nd-30th: 0-9° below normal.
Lastest European Monthlies do NOT indicate that this will be a very snowy and cold winter for the Ohio Valley. Though thats what I originally thought we'd be headed towards, I told you guys that we do have just as an equal chance for the pattern to be much different. From what I see though, it will likely be near normal temperatures with near normal snowfall to below normal snowfall. However, I still like to wait to late month to figure where the winter will take us. We are only half way through fall and I am just not a huge fan of long range seasonal forecasting. I am just calling it as I see it. Still plenty of time for things to change.
| NOV. 11 | NOV. 12 | NOV. 13 | NOV. 14 | NOV. 15 | NOV. 16 | NOV. 17 |
| SATURDAY | SUNDAY | MONDAY | TUESDAY | WEDNESDAY | THURSDAY | FRIDAY |
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| PARTLY SUNNY | PARTLY SUNNY | RAIN/SNOW MIX | CLOUDY | CLOUDS/SUN | SUNNY | PM RAIN? |
| 68 | 69 | 60↓ | 42 | 45 | 48 | 52 |
| 52 | 60 | 28 | 26 | 28 | 32 | 37 |
Here's the observations so far this month:
November 1: High 54 || Low 29 || Rain-NONE || Snow-NONE
November 2: High 51 || Low 33 || Rain-NONE || Snow-NONE
November 3: High 41 || Low 33 || Rain-0.08" || Snow-Trace
November 4: High 45 || Low 30 || Rain-NONE || Snow-NONE
November 5: High 46 || Low 25 || Rain-NONE || Snow-NONE
November 6: High 49 || Low 28 || Rain-0.01" || Snow-NONE
November 7: High 50 || Low 35 || Rain-0.07" || Snow-NONE
November 8: High 48 || Low 27 || Rain-NONE || Snow-NONE
November 9: High 63 || Low 32 || Rain-NONE || Snow-NONE
Summary--------447--||----272---|| -----0.16"----|| ----Trace----
Note that the low of 25° on November 5th is so far the coolest of this fall season and coolest since March 4th (25°).
The avg high so far is 49.6° and the avg low is 30.2°. The avg monthly temp so far is 39.9°. So far we are running nearly 9° below normal for the month.
November 2012 Temperature Data(November 1st-9th)
Actual Avg High---49.6°. This is 7.9#176; below the normal 57.5°.
Actutal Avg Low---30.2°. This is 8.8° below the normal 39°.
Actual Avg Temp---39.9°. This is 8.3° below the normal 48.2°.
November 2012 Precipitation Data
Precip Since November 1-----0.16". This is -0.88" from normal (1.04").
Precip Since September 1---11.76". This is +4.48" from normal (7.28").
Precip Since January 1-----34.25". This is -2.36" from normal (36.61").
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