Our Thursday morning low dropped all the way down to 29° this was the coolest morning of the fall/winter season so far and the coolest since April 11th. We rebounded quickly under sunshine rising 25° to an afternoon high of 54°. This was the 7th straight day below normal. It was also the 38th day this fall below normal.
High pressure to the North has lead to a Nice Sunny Friday Afternoon. Thanks to some clouds we didn't fall back into the upper 20s again. Fridays morning low was 33°. Highs climbed back to the 50s again. The high was 51°. This was the 8th straight day below normal. Now, 62% of our seasons days have been below normal. Our morning low should be 40° and our afternoon high should be 59°. The high was 8° below normal and the low was 7° below normal.
It looks clouds are beginning to stream in tonight. Overnight temperatures will be around where they were this morning, if not a few degrees warmer. Looking at mid 30s for lows. Saturday, we'll start the day with a mixture of some clouds and a little bit of sunshine but clouds will rule most of the day. We'll be wet Saturday Night as rain chances move in. Rain totals won't be all that impressive. We'll mostly be dealing with some very light rain showers. Models spit a avg of about a tenth of an inch. I think we'll be under a mixture of clouds and sunshine Sunday. It looks like we'll be dry for much of next week. There will be another shower chance next weekend.
A blocking pattern over the North Atlantic is what is keeping the cool air in place. This is also the pattern that directed Sandy in the Eastern U.S. If we continue to keep this blocking pattern this means two things; (1) We are in for a Cold Winter (2) We'll record far more snow than last years 9.8". A 26" snow total in a winter season is considered normal in Indianapolis. This will be something we'll have to continue to monitor but from what it looks like, the above normal trend we've had, stretching back from much of last year til this summer, has pretty faded away for the time being. We only knew it would be a matter of time before the other shoe dropped. You know we recorded a 60° high in December 2011, and January & February 2012? Thats 30-40° above normal. Simply Remarkable! I doubt we'll see that again this winter. More details later in the blog.
The latest drought analysis came out yesterday morning. From Tuesday last week to Tuesday this week (October 23-30), we picked up 0.87" of rain. While the East Coast got slammed with more than a foot of rain from Sandy, not much showers made it here to Central Indiana. Despite that, we are still undergoing improvements with our states drought. 7% of the state is still in a moderate drought but 30% of the state is no longer considered to be abnormally dry including Indianapolis. We are still however in a deficit of a more than an inch of rain which could be made up this month. As of November 1st the years precipitation amount sits at 34.09". Thats 1.60" below the normal 35.69" we should have now. Here's the latest map.
I've updated the rainfall deficit chart below.
| Location | Year to Date Precipitation (through Nov.1) |
Departure from Average | Precip since Sept 1 | Departure from Average | Precip since Oct 1 | Departure from Average |
| Indianapolis | 34.09 | - 1.60 | 11.60 | +5.24 | 3.87 | +0.63 |
| Evansville | 28.47 | - 8.88 | 10.50 | +4.07 | 2.90 | -0.48 |
| Lafayette | 26.90 | - 4.29 | 9.49 | +3.85 | 5.56 | +2.58 |
| Terre Haute | 24.62 | -13.79 | 7.08 | -0.05 | 2.89 | -0.82 |
| Muncie | 29.65 | - 4.25 | 10.73 | +4.74 | 5.09 | +2.06 |
| Bloomington | 27.47 | -12.76 | 11.17 | +4.13 | 3.79 | +0.10 |
| Shelbyville | 25.08 | -11.62 | 8.36 | +1.94 | 2.41 | -0.84 |
| Ft. Wayne | 25.78 | - 6.79 | 6.92 | +1.19 | 3.31 | +0.38 |
| South Bend | 31.00 | - 1.23 | 6.42 | -0.54 | 4.39 | -1.18 |
| Indy - Eagle Creek | 33.84 | - 0.31 | 11.71 | +6.21 | 4.58 | +1.33 |
Here's the breakdown for the years monthly rainfall in Indy.
| Month | Monthly Precip | Monthly Deficit | Precip Since JAN 1 | Yearly Deficit |
| JAN | 3.48" | +0.82" | 3.48" | +0.82" |
| FEB | 1.38" | -0.94" | 4.86" | -0.12" |
| MAR | 4.14" | +0.58" | 9.00" | +0.46" |
| APR | 3.36" | -0.45" | 12.36" | +0.01" |
| MAY | 2.70" | -2.35" | 15.06" | -2.34" |
| JUN | 0.09" | -4.16" | 15.15" | -6.50" |
| JUL | 0.83" | -3.72" | 15.98" | -10.22" |
| AUG | 6.51" | +3.38" | 22.49" | -6.84" |
| SEPT | 7.73" | +4.61" | 30.22" | -2.23" |
| OCT | 3.87" | +0.75" | 34.09" | -1.48" |
Here's the Monthly Observations for January 2012-August 2012:
| Month of Year |
AVG. High Temp. |
AVG. Low Temp. |
AVG. Monthly Temp. |
Precip | Snowfall |
| JANUARY | 41.9° | 29.5° | 33.7° | 3.48" | 4.40" |
| FEBRUARY | 45.5° | 29.1° | 37.3° | 1.38" | 2.20" |
| MARCH | 67.1° | 46.1° | 56.6° | 4.14" | 0.70" |
| APRIL | 65.2° | 43.8° | 54.5° | 3.36" | NONE |
| MAY | 79.6° | 58.0° | 68.8° | 2.70" | NONE |
| JUNE | 86.4° | 62.7° | 74.5° | 0.09" | NONE |
| JULY | 95.6° | 72.3° | 84° | 0.83" | NONE |
| AUGUST | 86.1° | 63.6° | 74.9° | 6.51" | NONE |
| SEPTEMBER | 74.3° | 56.1° | 65.2° | 7.73" | TRACE |
| OCTOBER | 61.5° | 43.9° | 52.7° | 3.87" | TRACE |
| JAN-OCT | 70.3° | 50.5° | 60.2° | 34.09" | 7.30" |
UPCOMING...
You'll hear the term "Nor'easter" a lot during the winter months where cold air and moisture supply is up. A gulf stream low will gather warm air and moisture from the Atlantic and strong northeasterly winds pull storms up the East Coast. This collides with artic air being blowned down from the North which stirs up heavy snows, gusty winds, and torrential downpours. Flooding and Blizzard-like conditions in the Northeast are the big threats from these kind of storms, streching from the Carolinas up to Maine.
Sandy is basically a strong version of a Nor'easter. We do have a Nor'easter coming next week on Wednesday. The difference between Sandy and the storm next week is, Sandy formed over the ocean while next weeks Nor'easter forms on land. Next week's storm does not have all the components Sandy did, which means this Nor'Easter will be weaker but will pack a punch. Don't be fooled, this can still be a very strong storm. Rescue and Clean Up Efforts will be put on hold when this passes through. Its not that this will be a very strong storm, its the fact that a storm is going to hit an already damaged area, which will only adds to more complications that already exist.
Something you might find interesting, back in the Ancient Sailing days, storms were referred to by the direction of which the winds blew. So, its simple to say, the Nor'easter gots it name from the strong Northeasterly winds that blew back then and thats something you certainly see on the East Coast.
If these Nor'easters continue, this is basically the type of winter we will have. Heavy Snows will slam the East Coast this winter. Regular dips in the jet stream will continue to usher in Cold Temperatures from the North. High-Latitude Blocking over Greenland, and regular negative phases of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is something that didn't materialize last winter which led a winter with above normal temperatures and below normal snowfall. When we don't see those positive phases of NOA and we don't lack the blocking then this is certainly good news for those who love winter. Thats the path we may be headed towards (towards the amplified pattern in the image below). Indiana is cold and may very well stay that way. We'll probably see more snow than last winter. I think temperatures and snowfall will be near normal. It will be much different from last year. This will only pan out if the current weather pattern persist. It looks like it will for much of this month. In fact, we could be looking at temperatures that will fail to top 40s mid to late month. Lows will flirt with temperature readings into the upper teens for some parts of the state. I can't promise you this will come true though. I could be wrong. I'm just calling it as I see it. I caution you, weather patterns can change quickly. And while I say this now, there is a equal chance for highs to stay above 40s and lows to stay above 20 as well. Just trying to look at this from all angles, especially since I really am not a huge huge fan of long range forecasting. We saw what happened last winter. In fact, though a negative NOA/AO is present now, it cannot be accurately predicted more than 2 weeks in advance. One reason why last winters weather pattern caught us by surprise. Last winter was Indiana's 11th least snowiest winter. This coming after it was forecasted to be the complete opposite. Bottomline, winter can still go either way for better or worse. Don't bite your tongue yet. Keep an open mind. Will share thoughts again later this month.
| NOV. 3 | NOV. 4 | NOV. 5 | NOV. 6 | NOV. 7 | NOV. 8 | NOV. 9 |
| TODAY | SUNDAY | MONDAY | TUESDAY | WEDNESDAY | THURSDAY | FRIDAY |
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| AM SUN/PM RAIN | PARTLY SUNNY | MOSTLY SUNNY | PARTLY SUNNY | PARTLY SUNNY | SUNNY | MOSTLY SUNNY |
| 47 | 50 | 51 | 53 | 53 | 56 | 58 |
| 31 | 32 | 33 | 36 | 37 | 39 | 39 |
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