Mild Air Will Fade, Rain to Snow, and Gusty Winds Continue

Mild Air made its return today but this is a one day deal as cold weather is expected to return for Tuesday and Wednesday. The high on Saturday was 26° and Sunday it was 32°. This is the first day back above freezing since Fridays high of 39°. We made a run towards the 60s and we got there for a quick second officially at 2:51PM. This after a morning low of 26°. This was a 32° temperature spread. The winds are a bit breezy with speeds between 20-30 MPH and gusts between 30-45 MPH. At 5:35PM there was a peak wind gust of 51 MPH at Indianapolis International Airport. Peak Wind Speed is 40 MPH.
Just a quick reality check back to winter, We did have one of our coldest mornings yesterday since the beginning of the month. The low on Sunday was 11°. Here's a look back at the weather observations over the past 10 days (Feb 8th-17th)

	FRIDAY	SATURDAY	SUNDAY	MONDAY	TUESDAY	WEDNESDAY	THURSDAY	FRIDAY	SATURDAY	SUNDAY
HIGHS	43	39	50	51	45	45	50	39	26	32
LOWS	30	24	32	31	23	28	31	22	19	11
PRECIP	TRACE	NONE	0.10"	NONE	NONE	NONE	NONE	TRACE	TRACE	TRACE
SNOW	TRACE	NONE	NONE	NONE	NONE	NONE	NONE	TRACE	TRACE	TRACE
PEAK WIND SPEED	25	15	24	40	14	14	25	23	22	16
PEAK WIND GUST	35	18	31	45	18	17	31	29	29	18

Showers in the city this evening. Looking to add up to a quarter of an inch to a half inch of rain.


A cold front will pass and anytime after 1AM the rain looks to change over to some snow. Not a whole lot but enough to certainly add to more trouble on the roads. Looking at a slushy half inch or less. I say the snow showers stick around til sunrise. Temperatures at midnight will be around the 40° mark so this will likely be our high for Tuesday. In response to the cold front temperatures will dip below freezing Tuesday morning towards the mid 20s and afternoon temperatures will be a struggle to get back above freezing. I'm expecting Tuesday afternoon temperatures to be in the upper 20s and low 30s for much of the day. Another story will be the gusty winds with peak speeds to 25 mph and gusts up 40 mph. Morning Winds Chill temps will be near 10-15°. Clearing skies Tuesday night will allow temperatures to fall back to low teens for Wednesday Morning lows. This will set the stage for a Cold but Sunny Wednesday.

Thursday still requires more monitoring as new weather computer model runs come in. It looks like we'll have clouds and some sun early on. Possibly some late day snow showers. The bigger event will be overnight and early morning. There could be some freezing rain that could lead to ice accumulations. The chances pretty much go on all night long into the early morning hours. This could wreck havoc on the roads. This should become more clearer and I can give you a better timeline in the coming days.
Weekend looks pretty good. We'll be fairly dry and seasonal with temperatures around the low 40s. Could be another system coming in Monday Night that offers up some more rain changing to snow early Tuesday Morning.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER
Over the past 80 days (including today), we've had 49 Days above normal, 27 days below normal, and 4 days normal. This means, despite a run at some very chilly temperatures this year (some of the coldest in 2 years), this has been a mild winter. 61.3% of the seasons days have been above normal. Each of the 3 months this winter season has featured atleast one day with temperature 60 or above. 60s are more typical for April and October.
Total Snowfall for the season is at 18.9". As of Today, this is running 2.3 below normal. We should be at 21.2".


UPCOMING...
As new models come in, snow chances are drying up. Its looking more evident that the month may finish with below normal snowfall. By the way, precipitation hasn't been all the great this month either. Only 0.30" from Feb 1st-Feb 17th. By now, we should be narrowing down on 1.5". Here's a look at the Projected 10 Day Precipitation Totals per ECMWF Model which suggests less than 1.25".

The days are becoming longer and the sun is 30% stronger than last month. The average high now is above 40. The average low goes above freezing on March 15th. The avg first 70° day usually comes in on March 16th. Spring is near. Blooming flowers and green grass is not that far away but it often calls out the return of allergy season. So here's a few steps on how to prepare yourself;
(1) Clean and Vaccuum your house often and don't skip those showers. Good Housekeeping and Hygeine can help minimize discomfort.
(2) Pollen is typically at its highest in the morning. Wait until later in the day to go outdoors, if possible.
(3) Don't wait until the last minute. This is a good time to make sure you have the necessary medication you need. It helps to have it on hand.
Though there is no real cure for allergies these are a few simple steps you can take to help minimize the allergy suffering.


Mark your calendar folks. Daylight Savings Time is less than 30 days away. On Sunday, March 10th we'll change our clocks at 2AM and move them forward to 3AM. If you forget you'll be late for work or church. Pretty far out, but plenty of notice in advance. Will continue to give you a friendly reminder for every blog I post over the next month. Also, there's 30 days left until Spring. The vernal equinox occurs at 7:02AM on Wednesday, March 20th.

The equinox is when the sun is directly overhead at the equator. Night and day are nearly exactly the same length – 12 hours – all over the world. The word "Equinox" is derived from Latin, meaning "equal night".

Last special note, on Monday, February 25th 2013 at 9:26 pm the full moon will be out. This moon is called the Snow Moon or Harsh Moon because tribes considered this to be the snowiest month of the winter season leaving conditions harsh for hunting or surviving. Other names are Snow-Blinding Moon, Wind Moon, and Blackbear Moon.


Here's a look at the Highlights for the upcoming Spring season per Accuweather.


Accuweather predicts it will be warm and wet at times. U.S. states may be in the top ten warmest again but not extreme as last spring. Here in Indiana, the first 80° day last year came March 15th. We had 7 days with highs in the 80s, 7 days with record high temperatures, and the highest temperature for March 2012 was 84° on the 21st. This was 1° shy from the tying the highest temperature ever recorded in March in Indianapolis. The record still stands at 85° held by March 31st, 1981. The average date of our first 80° day is April 20th. Also, precipitation expected to be "wet at times". This likely means it'll be a mix. Possible a period of wet days followed by a period of dry days. Will update and roll out the official Spring Forecast in the coming weeks.

***7 DAY OUTLOOK***

FEB. 19	FEB. 20	FEB. 21	FEB. 22	FEB. 23	FEB. 24	FEB. 25
TUESDAY	WEDNESDAY	THURSDAY	FRIDAY	SATURDAY	FLAG DAY	MONDAY
PARTLY SUNNY	PARTLY SUNNY	AM-SUN PM-SNOW?	AM-MIX? PM-SUN?	PARTLY SUNNY	PARTLY SUNNY	AM-SUN? PM-RAIN?
COLDER	DRY	ICE	ACCUM?	DRY	DRY
42↓	28	34	43	38	41	45
13	17	28	26	28	32	30