The Return of Colder Air and Snow Chances

Good Evening!
Today marks day 77 of meteorological winter and so far the season is running 63% above normal. We've had nearly 50 days above normal, 25 days below normal, and 4 days normal. Today marked the 10th consecutive day with temperature reading finishing above normal. Here's a recap of the season so far.
The winter started off mild and even stirred up a record high temperature in Indianapolis back on December 3rd when we tied the 69° record set back in 1982. After recording 64° on the 1st we did have one of the warmest opens to a December in 17 years, since 1995 (62°). This was the 18th time in 50 years, a December opened at 50° or higher. The most recent was back in 2009 with 54°.By the end of the first 10 days the average high was 55.1° (13° above normal) while the average low was 40.8° (13.5° above normal). This put the average temperature at 48°, which was about 13° above normal. Temperatures were back and forth with a cold finish. From December 11th-31st, there was 5 days that were below normal. The month finished averaging 6.8° per day above normal at 38.4°. The month did go down as the 19th out of the past 24 months (since January 2011) to finish above normal. By the way the months of January 2011, September 2011, September 2012, October 2012, and November 2012 are the only 5 months that have been below normal since January 2011.
The big talk of December was the snowy end to the month, a month that finished as the 7th most snowiest December on record with 14.8". The other 6 snowy Decembers was (1) 1973: 27.5" (2) 1895: 21.5" (3) 2010: 16.6" (4) 2000: 16.3" (5) 1981: 15.6" (6) 1977: 15.2"
We had one of the biggest snow depths in years on December 29 of 10". We opened the New Year with a 77.1% snow coverage in the midwest. The national snow coverage was 66.6%. But not many (hefty) snow systems have moved through our region over the past month. The coverage in the midwest went down to 12.7% on January 24th, while the national coverage dropped to 39.6%. On January 25th, a system did pass through only dropping 1.2" of snowfall. This raised the midwest snow coverage to 23.8% on the 26th and the national coverage went up to 43.5%. On the 31st a system produced 0.9" of snowfall which has left the month of January to finish with 2.4". January 2013 goes down as the 35th least snowiest on record (over a span of 141 years). This was the also the least snowiest January in 12 years since 2001 when we picked up 2.1". The month finished 6.2" below normal.
We did have a 6 day run at high temperatures above 40° from January 8th-13th. Then much of the nation went to a deep freeze. Here in Indianapolis, we went down to as low as 4° on the 22nd and that days high temperatures only topped 18°. The average high temperature from the 14th-23rd is suppose to be 35.4°. The actual average high for this period is 32.4° which is 3° below normal. The average low temperatures from the 14th-23rd is suppose to be 20°. The actual average low temperatures for this period is 17.8°, which is 2.2° below normal. This puts the 10 day average temperature for this period at 25.1° which is 2.6° below the normal average temperature of 27.7° for this period.
However, temperatures began a short incline to 53° on Monday, January 28th and spiked to 64° on Tuesday, January 29th. On January 30th, we set a record high of 65° shortly after 1AM. This beats the previous record of 64° set in 1947. This was ahead of storm that brought in cooler air. Temperatures fell throughout the day and by a minute before midnight the official low went down as 27°. This was a 38° drop throughout the day. One of the largest drops in months. Winds were also howling with speeds that topped 43 mph and a peak wind gust at 48 mph. The storms that day produced an inch of precipitation and a trace of snowfall. A mixed bag of weather events all within 24 hrs.
This brings us to February. We had one of the coldest opens to a February in 17 years. Though we had the sunshine, temps were in the teens. The official high on the 1st went down as 16°. Coldest of the season, and coldest in 2 years. You have to go back to January 21st, 2011 to get a temperature that cold. A 13° high that day after a morning low 3 degrees below zero. The first 3 days averaged 12° below normal. A few snow systems moved through the first few days of the month as well. 1.5" total snowfall for the 1st (0.2') and 2nd (1.3"). High temperatures then went into the 30s on the 4th (37°), 5th (36°), & 6th (34°). By the 7th, the high soared up to 53° at 4pm, which was 19° warmer then the 6th and 25° warmer from the 4am morning low of 28°. A milder spell kept a 8 day avg temp from the 7th-14th at 47°. This is 10° above normal. Lack of snow during this time period put a decline in snow coverage. The national coverage declined from 46.1% on February 2nd to 38.1% on February 15th, while the coverage in the midwest region declined from 49.6% to 4.2%.
The total amount of snowfall for this season so far sits at nearly 19". This is over an inch and half below normal. We average another 5" of snow between now and the end of April.
Precipitation is somewhat on the wet side. In fact, nationally, January was above average in precipitation. Much beneficial precipitation has hit much of the midwest region, of which 5.51" has reached Indianapolis. Take a look below at some of the weather events around the U.S. in the month of January (available courtesy of NCDC). The average temperature in the U.S was 32°, which was 1.6° above the 20th century average. This was tied with 1958 as the 39th warmest January on record.



If you haven't heard by now, a meteor flew over and crashed into Russia early this morning and impacted Chelyabinsk, Russia. This injured nearly 1,000 people, shattered windows on buildings, and did some structural damage as well. This is believed to be unrelated to asteroid 2012 DA14, which also passed today. The meteor was the biggest one seen since 1908, 105 years ago when one struck Tunguska, Siberia.


Well the snow is back and we're heading towards the coldest temps in 2 weeks as we transition to a colder weather pattern. Its been advertised for some time now as the the 2nd half of February becomes active. In fact, 4 storms have been identified in the upcoming 12 days left of the month. The first two coming in will be a "rain changing to snow" system while the other two may produce some hefty snowfall totals. Perhaps enough to get us at or above normal for the entire season. Something to watch as new data and charts come in.
STORM #1 comes in Monday starting off as rain. By Tuesday this will have changed over to accumulating snowfall. Something to note, if cold air tries to undercut the warmer air then there could be some ice mixed in as well. Something to fine tune in the coming days.

STORM #2 comes in Thursday the 21st. Again, this starts off as rain and finishes with snow on Friday. This looks to a be more potent for the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes Region, more like the entire Central and Eastern Half of the U.S. Could produce a few inches of snow. In the early stage there may even be a outbreak of severe weather that could spawn up a few tornadoes in the Gulf states. Possibly blizzard-like conditions in the Great Lakes Region which may impact Chicago as well. Also, if cold air undercuts warmer air then ice accumulations could be another concern. Again, something to fine tune in the coming days.

STORM #3 comes in Sunday Night into Monday the 24th/25th. Earliest Runs suggest this will be an all snow event. Don't think this will be a huge one but enough to be problematic on the roads especially for those Monday Morning commuters.

STORM #4 comes in sometime on Tuesday that could generate some more snowfall. Not a huge one though.


Looking ahead, the cold air will likely remain locked in for the rest of the month. This will not be bitterly cold air but it will be below normal for the better part of the 2nd half of February. GFS suggests up to 2.50" of (liquid) precipitation in the next 2 weeks. Imagine what it would be like if this were snow. Hmm...another reason to see how the rest of this month will really play out. Definitely an active pattern coming though.


An interesting note; As we open up March, some improvements will be coming. As the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) trends positive, milder air will mark its return for the first week of March and cold air eases up along with the storm chances. We're getting closer to where we'll start seeing more 40s, 50s and 60s and less of the highs in the teens, 20s, and 30s.

Mark your calendar folks. Daylight Savings Time is less than 30 days away. On Sunday, March 10th we'll change our clocks at 2AM and move them forward to 3AM. If you forget you'll be late for work or church. Pretty far out, but plenty of notice in advance. Will continue to give you a friendly reminder for every blog I post over the next month. Also, there's 33 days left until Spring. The vernal equinox occurs at 7:02AM on Wednesday, March 20th. Last special note, on Monday, February 25th 2013 at 9:26 pm the full moon will be out. This moon is called the Snow Moon or Harsh Moon because tribes considered this to be the snowiest month of the winter season leaving conditions harsh for hunting or surviving. Other names are Snow-Blinding Moon, Wind Moon, and Blackbear Moon.

***7 DAY OUTLOOK***

TONIGHT: Partly Cloudy. Cold. Low 18.
TOMORROW: Partly to Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Flurries. Colder. High 25.
SUNDAY: Partly Sunny and Dry. High 32. MONDAY: Good Chance of Rain. Mild. High 46.
TUESDAY: Rain Changes to Snow. Light Ice Accumulation? Colder. High 33.

FEB. 16	FEB. 17	FEB. 18	FEB. 19	FEB. 20	FEB. 21	FEB. 22
SATURDAY	SUNDAY	MONDAY	TUESDAY	WEDNESDAY	THURSDAY	FRIDAY
CLOUDS/SUN FLURRIES	PARTLY SUNNY	RAIN TO SNOW	ACCUM. SNOWFALL?	PARTLY SUNNY	RAIN TO SNOW	ACCUM. SNOWFALL?
COLDER	DRY	STORM #1	ICE ACCUM?	DRY	STORM #2	ICE ACCUM?
25	32	46	33	33	39	33
16	27	25	18	29	24	18