Wintry Mix Coming

A winter storm that has nearly 20 states in a winter weather advisory or winter storm warning is moving through the Midwest region and will impact Indiana tomorrow night. A wintry cocktail of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is expected. There will be some light ice and snow accumulations. No advisories or warnings have been issued yet as of 11pm Wednesday Night. This is NOT expected to be a significant system and this is not an ICE STORM. Though, just a little amount can be enough to wreck havoc on the roads. If your traveling Thursday Night or early Friday Morning, be careful, slow down, and be aware of your surrounding. Also, give yourself plenty of room between yourself and the car in front of you. I have a breakdown of the forecast over the next 24-48 hours below.

First, lets take a look at temperatures. This will play a role on how things actually turn out. The colder we are, the more chance the snowfall forecast can upped. For right now, most models favor temperatures around the 30° mark at midnight. NAM model wants to go down into the upper 20s. The NAM is the most aggressive model out there. Temperatures go above freezing around 7AM after sunrise. By noon we are in the upper 30s near 40. Afternoon highs look to be the mid 40s.



So, how much snow will we get? Again, NAM comes out pretty aggressive suggesting close to 2". Others come in far less suggesting an inch or less. The farther North you go, the more snowfall you'll likely get. Perhaps 2" up to 4". Northern Indiana gets mostly all snow. Central Indiana gets a mixed bag of everything. Southern Half of Indiana gets mostly rain and freezing rain.



How much ice? Some models go up to 0.25" while other lower towards 0.10". The average amount favors about 0.17". But as new model runs come in that may be a bit on the high side especially for those in Central and Northern parts of the state. Could be looking at more towards 0.05" as the snowfall forecast is being upped.



Here's the sleet forecast. Average amount comes out at 0.05". 0.11" at the most right now.



For Indianapolis, the event looks to come in after 8PM tomorrow night and temperatures will be in the low 30s. From 8PM-6AM we will get a mix of about an 1-2" of snow, 0.05-0.1" of ice, and 0.05" or less of sleet. It'll likely start off as snow then transition to a period of sleet and freezing drizzle. From 6AM-Noon, any precipitation falling will be in the form of rain. Not looking at much more precipitation. By midday, we should be drying out. Clouds will likely continue to hover overhead.
Temperatures fall back on Saturday to the upper 30s. We'll be under a mixture of plenty of clouds and a little sunshine but there is a chance for some flurries as well. The next storm system comes in Monday Night into Tuesday offering a Rain to Snow Event. This will also mark the return of artic air.

Winter weather is hanging on and we now have 28 days left until Spring. Take a look at the teleconnectors below. NAO and AO goes negative and PNA goes positive as we wrap up February and open March. This means a cold end to February and a stormy open to March. Take a look at Saturday, March 2nd. Something might be brewing there. Requires more attention. And yes, this will be a winter storm event. Chances are not looking good for an early spring folks!



***7 DAY OUTLOOK***

FEB. 21	FEB. 22	FEB. 23	FEB. 24	FEB. 25	FEB. 26	FEB. 27
THURSDAY	FRIDAY	SATURDAY	SUNDAY	MONDAY	TUESDAY	WEDNESDAY
AM-SUN PM-SNOW	AM-MIX PM-SUN?	FLURRIES POSSIBLE	PARTLY SUNNY	AM-SUN? PM-RAIN?	RAIN TO SNOW	SNOW POSSIBLE
LIGHT 1"-2"	ICE ACCUM. TOTAL SNOW		DRY	NEXT STORM EVENT	FALLING TEMPS	BECOMING COLDER
33	45	38	41	44	38↓	31
30	26	23	31	37	21	18