Calmer Weather Underway, Rain Returns to End Week

We were off to a frosty start this Tuesday morning with lows temperatures dipping down into the upper 20s. Many locations around Indiana saw temps 10°-15° cooler than yesterday morning. The offical low in Indianapolis yesterday was 40, the AM low today was 28. The average low is 34°. Yesterday's highs reached the upper 40s, lower 50s around the state, officially 50° in Indianapolis. We should see high temperature readings about 5° cooler for Tuesday Afternoon. The average high for today is 51°. We should see plenty of sunshine today but some highs clouds are on the move in. Winds have calmed down considerably so with the sun, it should be feel a little warmer outside even though we are actually cooler. That's because we won't have that low of a wind chill than we did yesterday.
Wednesday, we start the day dry and sunny but clouds will be increasing as the day progresses. We'll begin to reintroduce the chance for more rain Wednesday night lingering into Thursday, Friday, and Saturday but the good news is this won't come with any thunderstorms and will be light rain. Temperatures are expected to climb out of the 40s into the lower 50s over the coming days but a very slight warm up...well, it'll be a slight one. Some big cold air is looming for next weekend. Temperatures look to fall back on Saturday and the rain looks to change over to some snow. We aren't looking at any snow accumulations.
Sunday morning lows look to fall back to the mid to upper teens in Central Indiana but areas away from the city could drop to the low teens. We reached 18° back on the 13th. If we drop below that, then it will be the coldest morning since the thermometer dropped to 16° on March 21st and coldest morning of the season. High temperatures on Sunday aren't expected to climb too far. In fact, we may not even get out of the 30s. The last time that happened was February 20th when the high was 27°. The last November day that didn't reach 30 was 8 years ago on November 25, 2005 when the high went down as 28. This won't set a record though because the record for lowest high temperature on Sunday is 9° set 63 years ago in 1950. The High and Low temperatures will be anywhere between 15°-22° below normal.
Watching Monday overnight into early Tuesday next week for the potential for a wintry mix. May be some timing issues to work out so for now I'm putting everything on the table. Rain, snow, sleet and freezing rain. This isn't a big significant system and may not even verify but still something to watch. Just the little bit of winter weather can wreck havoc on those traveling the roads. We might be dry for a few days but the next system is not too far behind for the weekend next weekend to end November and open December. Looking ahead into the early part of December, cold below normal temps look to continue on. Our days with highs 60+ are pretty much done for the year and 50+ could be ending soon as well. Standby more updates to come.


SUNDAY'S SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK
The NWS office are continuing to assess the damage from the outbreak on Sunday. From what I can see at the moment there have been about 50 confirmed tornadoes across; Indiana (23), Ilinois (12), Michigan (5), Ohio (5), Tennessee (3), and Kentucky (2). The 23 tornadoes that struck Indiana is the 3rd highest tornado outbreak for the state behind June 2, 1990 (37) and May 30, 2004 (24). This number could be increasing as I type this very second at 11am. As for fatalities it appears there were 6 in Illinois and 2 (non tornadic) in Michigan. As you know, a rare "high risk" for severe weather was issued by SPC for a large part of the Midwest & Ohio Valley Region, for only the second time in 2013. The 1st time was back on June 12th when a Derecho passed through the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley Region. It was also the first time in November since November 15, 2005 and 4th time for a November since November 15, 1989. I've provided a photo below shared on Twitter by Eric Fisher (Chief Meteorologist for WBZ-TV in Boston, MA). Its the Day 1 Convective Outlook overlayed with the storm reports. The heaviest concentration of reports were within the "High Risk" and "Moderate Risk" area which proves the accuracy of the forecast for this severe weather event. Weather watches and warnings are issued for a reason and should be heeded and not taken lightly. THIS WAS NO JOKE AT ALL!
Indianapolis recorded a peak wind gust of 67 mph, which is the highest for the year. Additionally, a record (daily) rainfall amount of 2.48" was recorded (for November 17th). This broke a 127 year old record of 1.97" set in 1886. As storm reports are finalized and become available, I will share updated numbers in a future blog along w/ a few photos of the damage.

WINTER WEATHER PREPARDNESS WEEK
Governor Mike Pence has proclaimed this week, November 17-23, as Winter Weather Preparedness Week in Indiana. The purpose is to inform and prepare of the dangers winter weather presents and to provide tips & much needed advice on Surviving Winter Storms. For more information, you can read all the material provided by the NWS office in the following url link provided below. One of the campaigns you may see this winter, "Ice and Snow...Take it Slow".

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ind&storyid=59664&source=0


Here's my weather outlook for the rest of the month.

SUNDAY	MONDAY	TUESDAY	WEDNESDAY	THURSDAY	FRIDAY	SATURDAY
NOVEMBER 17	NOVEMBER 18	NOVEMBER 19	NOVEMBER 20	NOVEMBER 21	NOVEMBER 22	NOVEMBER 23
OBSERVED Thunderstorms Heavy Rain/Winds Low Visibility/Fog HIGH: 66 LOW:  48 Precip: 2.48R Normals 52°/35° Sunrise 7:32am Sunset 5:27pm	OBSERVED 90% Sunshine 10% Cloud Coverage HIGH: 50 LOW:  32 Precip: NONE Normals 51°/34° Sunrise 7:33am Sunset 5:26pm	Mostly Sunny Not As Breezy A Little Cooler AM LOW:  28 PM HIGH: 44 Normals 51°/34° Sunrise 7:34am Sunset 5:26pm	AM Sun Gives Way To PM Clouds PM Rain (Late?) AM LOW:  30 PM HIGH: 48 Normals 50°/33° Sunrise 7:35am Sunset 5:25pm	Cloudy With Showers Likely AM LOW:  41 PM HIGH: 50 Normals 49°/33° Sunrise 7:36am Sunset 5:25pm	Cloudy With Showers Likely AM LOW:  47 PM HIGH: 56 Normals 49°/33° Sunrise 7:37am Sunset 5:24pm	Rain to Snow No Accumulations Falling Temps AM HIGH: 43↓ PM LOW:  22 Normals 48°/32° Sunrise 7:38am Sunset 5:23pm
NOVEMBER 24	NOVEMBER 25	NOVEMBER 26	NOVEMBER 27	THANKSGIVING	NOVEMBER 29	NOVEMBER 30
Sunny Skies Coldest Afternoon Since March 2nd 20° Below Normal AM LOW:  17 PM HIGH: 26 Normals 48°/32° Sunrise 7:40am Sunset 5:23pm	Mostly Sunny A Tad Warmer But Still Cold AM LOW:  20 PM HIGH: 37 Normals 47°/31° Sunrise 7:41am Sunset 5:22pm	Cloudy w/ a Chance for Rain and/or Snow AM LOW:  25 PM HIGH: 40 Normals 47°/31° Sunrise 7:42am Sunset 5:22pm	A Mix of Some Sunshine & A Few Clouds AM LOW:  25 PM HIGH: 35 Normals 46°/31° Sunrise 7:43am Sunset 5:22pm	Mostly Sunny Nice Day But Cold AM LOW:  20 PM HIGH: 35 Normals 46°/30° Sunrise 7:44am Sunset 5:21pm	Partly Sunny A Tad Warmer AM LOW:  22 PM HIGH: 38 Normals 45°/30° Sunrise 7:45am Sunset 5:21pm	Some AM Sun? Increasing Clouds PM Rain/Snow Mix? AM LOW:  23 PM HIGH: 39 Normals 45°/29° Sunrise 7:46am Sunset 5:21pm