Summer has returned from vacation! Its been a cool month with 19 out of 21 days seeing below normal temperatures! So far the average temperature for this month (thru the 21st) is 70.4°. This is 5.3° below normal. We started this Tuesday with a morning low of 67° after yesterday's seasonal high of 85. We look to see our hottest day of the year and possibly the hottest day in 314 days when we saw our last 90 on September 11th of last year. We've only gotten as high as 88 this year recorded on 4 days (June 17, 18, 19, 23). One concern on whether we get to 90 are those muggy dew points temps which will be hovering around the 70° mark and clouds possibly coming in from the west. This can slow down or keep temps from rising too much in the afternoon. One thing working against it though is the drier than normal conditions we've seen all month. We are over 2" behind in rainfall and we haven't received a full inch for July. Last measurable precipitation was Monday of last week.
Here's today's forecast temps from 00z European run.
Tonight, a round of storms looks to push thru the state after 11pm. Areas in NW Indiana are under a slight risk for severe weather. It'll take a few hours before it makes it way to Indianapolis. We look to get storms here sometime after 3AM.
11PM 5AM
11AM 5PM
A cold front passing Wednesday afternoon will push the storms out of here. There could be a large temperature spread in the state. Some areas North may not get out of the 60s, we'll be pushing for 80 in Central Indiana with the best chance of seasonal summer temperatures south!
Temperatures will be cooler for Thursday & Friday with temperatures between 75°-80°.
Over the weekend we look for a chance of convective potential meaning thunderstorms are in the forecast, particularly for Saturday. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s.
Tropical Depression 2 formed in the Central Atlantic yesterday. As of 11am, the National Hurricane Center places this around 910 miles East of Lesser Antilles with a central minimum pressure of 1012 mb and maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. There is no threat to the United States. Its expected to continue to travel westward and dissipate to a remnant low in the days ahead.
Here's my latest 10 day weather outlook for Indianapolis, Indiana. Once we get past the weekend, another trough will dig into the Eastern U.S. with winds coming in from the North. This will result in below normal temperatures for Eastern U.S. We are looking at what may be a "Rex Block" weather pattern setting up. Depending on how this exactly sets up its possible areas in the Eastern U.S. may be stuck in an unsettled pattern that may bring numerous days of precipitation. It is not clear how the pattern may directly impact weather in Indiana but during the blocking pattern its possible the period of time may see above normal precipitation but below normal temperatures. You can this reflected on July 28-31 on my outlook below. Beyond this outlook this pattern looks to break up allowing for temperatures to return to the 80s, however, much of the 8-14 day range will continue to see below normal temperatures and slightly above normal precipitation. This is a general forecast for the Eastern U.S. The extended forecast will become more clear in the coming days.
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