Weekend Storms Coming, Cool Again Next Week

We had a nice run of 8 consecutive dry days this month but this streak was interrupted on Wednesday as an unsettled atmosphere interacted with an approaching cold front. This triggered thunderstorms that was responsible for bringing a record 1.61" of rainfall for July 23rd. This bested a 57 year old precipitation record of 1.34" set in 1957. This marks the 3rd NEW precipitation record this year and also marks the 8th time a calendar day has seen an inch or more precipitation. It was the wettest calendar day in 63 days (1.87" on May 21st). The temperatures lowered a little bit and the humidity tanked once the front was through late Wednesday afternoon. This set the stage for a beautiful & comfortable Thursday. The high temperature Thursday was 76° after a morning low temperature of 58°. On Friday morning, the sun was with us for a beautiful sunrise at 6:37am but clouds began to move in and at one point, the city even saw a few sprinkles falling. Most of the day was dry though and sunshine returned to end the day. Temperatures warmed 18° to an afternoon high of 74° from a morning low of 56°. Temperatures ranged anywhere from as little as 8° below normal to as much 11° below normal on Thursday and Friday.

22 DAYS THIS MONTH BELOW NORMAL, #1 COOLEST JULY ON RECORD TO DATE
Yes, 88% of this month has been spent below normal and is helping to make this one of the coolest years on record. Good chance this year goes down in the Top 5. Currently, the average to date temperature for 2014 stands at 47.8°. The year 1917 is the coldest year on record with an average temperature of 49.7°. We are on track to top this record but We have another 5 full months to get through before this can happen. We also need to officially wrap up July as well. The average month's temperature through July 25th is 70.3°, which is 5.2° below normal to date and the coolest July since 2009. The coolest July ever (officially) is 1947 with an average temperature of 70.6°. 2009 is the 2nd coolest with an average temperature of 70.9°. I don't see why we don't make the #1 spot but if for some reason we fail to at the top 2, we'll definitely squeeze in the 3rd spot ahead of 1960 (71.6°).

WEEKEND STORMS COMING
A warm front is moving its way and those dew points will be climbing. That means warmer and muggier temperatures will be on tap for the weekend with highs pushing back into the 80s and dew points climbing to near 70 (oppressive levels). However, this warmth will be accompanied by several rounds of storms as our atmosphere becomes unstable. One round of storms will come through early Saturday morning. We may get a break midday before another more potent round comes on Saturday night. This storm will have the potential to bring damaging winds, flash flooding, and widespread power outages. As with any storm there is always a 1% chance for a tornado and prolific lightning can be expected (that can be fatal if your outdoors). "WHEN THUNDER ROAR, GO INDOORS!" Here's a simulated radar snapshots at both 12PM Saturday (left) and 12AM Saturday night (right) from this evenings 4k NAM model. Its possible there could be a few hours of dry time between these two rounds.



COOLER AND POTENTIAL RECORD BREAKING AIR COMES TO FINISH THE MONTH
The Jet Stream will dip and an anomalous trough will be responsible for bringing temperatures 10°-20° below normal starting on Monday for much of the Eastern U.S. There is a small rain chance in the forecast for us on Monday, with the best chance the 1st half of the day. Temperatures may barely top the low 70s which will flirt with the record for the lowest high temperature of 72° set in 1925 and later tied in 1928. Clearing skies Tuesday night will allow temperatures to fall to the lower 50s. This will be the near record low of 51° set in 1881. On Wednesday, we start cold and finish cool but sunshine and dry air will allow temps to shoot up a good 20° with a high in the low to mid 70s again. This again flirts with the record for coolest high of 72° set 125 years ago in 1889. Temperatures will fall back again into the lower 50s for Thursday morning lows. The record low is again 51° which was set in 1965. Thursday temperatures will start moving up past the 75° mark but it still may take a few days to actually return back to the 80s but Friday will probably be our 1st shot at it. Normally for this time of the year, we should see afternoon temperatures in the middle 80s after morning lows in the middle 60s.



PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED?
There some indications that temperatures will try to warm up to near but slightly below seasonal values. Models have been struggling because they believe we'll introduce some daily chances for precipitation. CPC has placed Indiana under a probability for above normal precipitation in the 8-14 day range. Temperatures are expected to continue to remain below normal. Typically, the month of August averages 3.13" of rain with a average temperature of 74.2°. In terms of average temperatures, July and August are typically the warmest months of the year.